How Much Have Closed Primaries Hurt Bernie Sanders?

In the course of their coverage of the Democratic primary race, the media has casually brought up that Bernie Sanders does better in open or semi-closed primary races (where independent and no party affiliation voters are allowed to participate) than in closed primaries that include only Democrats. What I haven’t seen anyone do is examine the exact impact that the exclusion of independent voters has had on this primary process so far. For starters, let’s compare the results of contests where independents could vote with the results of contests where independents were excluded. For the sake of this exercise, we won’t count closed primaries or caucuses where voters could switch to Democrat at the polling place.

Continue reading